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Nurnberg 1–2 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Heft, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win36%2.68
Nurnberg win35%2.77
Draw28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Philip Heise · Dresden
40'🟨Marvin Stefaniak · Dresden
45'🟨Ondřej Petrák · Nurnberg
46'⚽Erich Berko · Dresden
48'🟨Miso Brecko · Nurnberg
71'⚽Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
box share (last 5)0.580.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days242.00578.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.132.49
elo1453.59
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
1503.32
elo momentum (last 5)-0.20-7.31
eye test v10.550.53
eye trend v10.33-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)66.3063.10
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.70
keeper form v10.620.81
league points25.0027.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank18.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6074.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4055.20
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.460.28
season ppg1.471.59
skill v1-0.650.12
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.60
state index-0.010.06
sterile dominance v1-0.98-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.24
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40