← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Heidenheim win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.11 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim |
| 56' | ⚽ | Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 80' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 84' | ⚽ | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
| 85' | 🟨 | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 607.00 | 3437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.05 |
| elo | 1370.80 | 1536.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.79 | 15.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 13.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 26.61 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |