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Bielefeld 1–2 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win38%2.58
Bielefeld win33%2.93
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Stefan Kutschke · Dresden
34'🟨Marco Hartmann · Dresden
39'🟨Erich Berko · Dresden
41'🟨Akaki Gogia · Dresden
55'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
81'⚽Pascal Testroet · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.39
box share (last 5)0.580.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days170.00536.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.83
elo1366.06
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
1495.29
elo momentum (last 5)0.864.46
eye test v10.180.59
eye trend v1-0.07-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)55.7063.00
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.70
keeper form v10.570.83
league points14.0024.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6052.80
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.310.30
season ppg0.881.50
skill v1-1.01-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.80
state index-0.48-0.13
sterile dominance v1-1.41-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80