← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.13 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 564.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 1.69 |
| elo | 1369.48 | 1475.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.27 | -24.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.59 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 25.99 |
| state index | -1.35 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |