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Dresden 0–0 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win56%1.75
Draw25%3.84
Karlsruhe win19%5.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Jannik Müller · Dresden
26'🟨Stefan Kutschke · Dresden
59'🟨Charis Mavrias · Karlsruhe
61'🟨Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden
75'🟨Franck Kom · Karlsruhe
82'🟨Dennis Kempe · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Akaki Gogia · Dresden
90'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.33
box share (last 5)0.720.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days527.008.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.55
elo1500.15
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
1375.62
elo momentum (last 5)18.07-43.76
eye test v10.29-0.14
eye trend v10.020.02
first sub minute (last 10)63.0059.60
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.700.74
keeper form v10.82—
league points23.0012.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.7570.75
possession avg (last 5)50.6052.60
rest days6.237.00
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.530.80
skill v1-0.38-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
state index0.25-1.27
sterile dominance v1-0.31-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00