← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 54% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.03 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 22% | 4.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Timo Baumgartl · VfB Stuttgart |
| 18' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 24' | ⚽ | Christian Gentner · VfB Stuttgart |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · VfB Stuttgart |
| 41' | 🟨 | Carlos Mané · VfB Stuttgart |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nicky Adler · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 67' | ⚽ | Carlos Mané · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mirnes Pepic · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 76' | ⚽ | Carlos Mané · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 552.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 2.12 |
| elo | 1374.64 | 1610.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.04 | 38.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 72.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.13 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 25.22 |
| state index | -1.52 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |