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Bielefeld 1–0 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win42%2.32
Bochum win29%3.32
Draw29%3.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-4'🟨Manuel Riemann · Bochum
8'🟨Julian Börner · Bielefeld
16'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
55'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
60'🟨Arvydas Novikovas · Bochum
75'🟨Timo Perthel · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.50
box share (last 5)0.600.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days156.00734.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.11
elo1362.28
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
1395.82
elo momentum (last 5)-1.90-7.17
eye test v10.130.47
eye trend v10.24-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)57.0057.70
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.62
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.570.69
league points11.0018.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.0020.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.3374.67
possession avg (last 5)48.6055.40
rest days8.798.02
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg0.791.29
skill v1-0.360.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
state index-0.67-0.73
sterile dominance v1-0.600.26
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.370.30
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80