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Nurnberg 1–3 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Thomsen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg win51%1.92
Draw28%3.49
SV Sandhausen win21%4.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Stefan Kulovits · SV Sandhausen
28'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
32'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
41'🟨Edgar Salli · Nurnberg
42'🟨Stefan Kulovits · SV Sandhausen
42'🟥Stefan Kulovits · SV Sandhausen
55'⚽Philipp Klingmann · SV Sandhausen
57'🟨Lucas Höler · SV Sandhausen
59'🟨Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg
76'⚽Daniel Łukasik · SV Sandhausen
82'⚽Guido Burgstaller · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.47
box share (last 5)0.540.72
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days185.00155.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.182.98
elo1442.83
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
1489.49
elo momentum (last 5)13.036.28
eye test v1-0.46-0.21
eye trend v1-0.130.29
first sub minute (last 10)64.4060.40
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.27
keeper form v10.54—
league points19.0019.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank15.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.3361.67
possession avg (last 5)53.2049.80
rest days4.705.98
scorer concentration0.430.32
season ppg1.361.36
skill v1-0.46-1.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
state index-0.160.01
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00