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Dresden 2–2 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win53%1.83
Draw25%3.94
Bochum win22%4.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Marco Stiepermann · Bochum
15'⚽Johannes Wurtz · Bochum
32'⚽Aias Aosman · Dresden
40'⚽Stefan Kutschke · Dresden
45'🟨Gökhan Gül · Bochum
64'🟨Johannes Wurtz · Bochum
85'⚽Peniel Mlapa · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.510.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.50
box share (last 5)0.790.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days514.00726.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.722.08
elo1515.54
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
1390.95
elo momentum (last 5)54.82-11.42
eye test v10.440.14
eye trend v10.070.11
first sub minute (last 10)61.7059.00
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.71
keeper form v10.920.73
league points22.0017.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0020.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0076.50
possession avg (last 5)51.2056.40
rest days5.987.77
scorer concentration0.330.22
season ppg1.691.31
skill v1-0.220.43
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.40
state index0.91-0.76
sterile dominance v1-0.000.70
threat rate (last 10)0.200.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60