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FC St. Pauli 1910 0–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win38%2.60
Fortuna Dusseldorf win33%3.00
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf
36'⚽ (og)Daniel Buballa · Fortuna Dusseldorf
40'🟨Aziz Bouhaddouz · FC St. Pauli 1910
45'🟨Lasse Sobiech · FC St. Pauli 1910
69'🟨Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910
85'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Fortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.52
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.59
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days705.00264.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.54
elo1342.561456.94
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
-30.82
21.38
eye test v1-1.03-0.30
eye trend v1-0.170.10
first sub minute (last 10)48.3060.30
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.43
league points6.0019.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet20.001.00
matches since win8.001.00
possession avg (last 5)45.4050.20
rest days12.7215.79
scorer concentration0.430.31
season ppg0.501.58
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
state index-1.390.14
sterile dominance v10.331.01
threat rate (last 10)0.180.15
threat rate (last 3)0.180.14
threat rate (last 5)0.160.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40