Kaiserslautern 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Kaiserslautern win	38%	2.54
1. FC Union Berlin win	33%	2.96
Draw	29%	3.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'	🟨	Naser Aliji · Kaiserslautern
71'	⚽	Marcel Gaus · Kaiserslautern
80'	🟨	Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern
86'	🟨	Patrick Ziegler · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Kaiserslautern	1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)	0.50	0.54
accuracy ratio (last 3)	0.41	0.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)	0.47	0.47
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	157.00	127.00
congestion 21d	3.00	3.00
corners volatility (last 10)	2.87	3.50
elo	1395.52	1519.52
elo momentum (last 5)	11.89	-2.45
eye test v1

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Fritz-Walter-Stadion