← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |