← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kevin Möhwald · Nurnberg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nicky Adler · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 75' | 🟨 | Miso Brecko · Nurnberg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 522.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 3.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 3.02 |
| elo | 1380.75 | 1581.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.46 | 55.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.37 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |