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Heidenheim 2–1 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win44%2.22
Draw32%3.06
Karlsruhe win24%4.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Hiroki Yamada · Karlsruhe
36'⚽ (pen)Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim
54'🟨Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim
82'🟨Rene Vollath · Karlsruhe
82'⚽Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
90'🟨Florian Kamberi · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3352.00126.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
1.40
-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.641.83
elo1525.121491.64
elo momentum (last 5)11.85-2.70
eye test v1-0.80-0.02
eye trend v1-0.290.49
first sub minute (last 10)58.5060.80
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
league points19.0012.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2050.20
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.230.29
season ppg1.731.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
state index0.21-0.24
sterile dominance v10.350.52
threat rate (last 10)0.190.15
threat rate (last 3)0.120.17
threat rate (last 5)0.170.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00