← 2. Bundesliga 2016 · Fri, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Dresden win | 29% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 26' | ⚽ | Akaki Gogia · Dresden |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 48' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 50' | ⚽ | Akaki Gogia · Dresden |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kevin Akpoguma · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 248.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| -1.40 |
| -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.78 |
| elo | 1500.26 | 1438.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.80 | 33.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |