Almeria 1–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jun 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Almeria win	84%	1.15
Draw	12%	7.81
Reus win	3%	28.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'	⚽	Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
72'	🟨	Édgar Hernández · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Almeria	Reus
accuracy ratio (last 10)	0.42	0.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)	0.38	0.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)	0.40	0.33
box share (last 5)	0.80	0.67
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	101.00	1105.00
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
corners volatility (last 10)	2.11	3.10
elo	1417.14	1483.28
elo momentum (last 5)	-15.83	16.78
eye test v1	-0.15	-0.71
eye trend v1	0.31	0.16
first sub minute (last 10)	61.50	58.30
form points (last 5)	6.00	10.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-0.80	0.60
goals against avg (last 5)	1.60	0.60
goals for avg (last 5)	0.80	1.20
goals volatility (last 10)	1.14	0.82
keeper form v1	0.65	0.88
league points	48.00	55.00
league rank	17.00	9.00
matches since blank	0.00	3.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	0.00
matches since win	1.00	0.00
pass acc avg (last 5)	75.60	77.80
possession avg (last 5)	51.00	47.60
rest days	6.02	6.02
scorer concentration	0.35	0.25
season ppg	1.17	1.34
skill v1	0.03	0.02
sot against avg (last 5)	4.80	4.60
sot for avg (last 10)	3.60	3.00
sot for avg (last 3)	5.00	3.00
sot for avg (last 5)	4.20	2.80
state index	-0.47	0.09
sterile dominance v1	0.34	0.34
threat rate (last 10)	0.17	0.18
threat rate (last 3)	0.23	0.17
threat rate (last 5)	0.20	0.18
venue ppg (last 5)	2.00	1.00

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Estadio del Mediterráneo