⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cadiz 2–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win53%1.85
Draw26%3.77
Elche CF win22%4.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Brian Oliván · Cadiz
51'🟨Ager Aketxe · Cadiz
53'⚽Aridane Hernández · Cadiz
55'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
71'⚽Salvi · Cadiz
78'🟨Andres Tunez · Elche CF
81'🟨Sory Kaba · Elche CF
87'🟨Álvaro García · Cadiz
90'⚽Guillermo · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.22
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days429.00704.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.77
elo1508.11
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
1381.89
elo momentum (last 5)2.95-40.01
eye test v10.25-0.62
eye trend v10.290.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.1049.10
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.03
keeper form v10.740.57
league points61.0043.00
league rank5.0020.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.0011.00
matches since win4.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4074.80
possession avg (last 5)45.8051.00
rest days8.087.08
scorer concentration0.310.28
season ppg1.521.07
skill v1-1.48-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.80
state index-0.18-1.29
sterile dominance v1-1.30-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.27
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60