Girona 0–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Draw	60%	1.50
Girona win	28%	3.25
Zaragoza win	13%	7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Girona	Zaragoza
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	1264.00	246.00
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
corners volatility (last 10)	2.79	2.27
elo	1530.77	1433.58
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.52	-14.73
first sub minute (last 10)	56.20	58.70
form points (last 5)	7.00	3.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.00	-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)	1.40	1.00
goals for avg (last 5)	1.40	0.60
goals volatility (last 10)	1.07	0.88
keeper form v1	0.67	0.78
league points	69.00	49.00
league rank	2.00	15.00
matches since blank	1.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	1.00
matches since win	3.00	5.00
pass acc avg (last 5)	75.80	74.00
possession avg (last 5)	49.40	49.20
rest days	7.08	7.17
scorer concentration	0.22	0.42
season ppg	1.73	1.23
skill v1	-0.06	-0.26
state index	-0.24	-0.59
sterile dominance v1	-0.55	-0.21
threat rate (last 10)	0.29	0.23
threat rate (last 3)	0.28	0.24
threat rate (last 5)	0.30	0.25
venue ppg (last 5)	0.80	1.60

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Estadi Montilivi