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Cordoba 4–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win45%2.16
Draw31%3.19
Oviedo win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
11'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
26'🟨Nando · Oviedo
31'🟨Antoñito · Cordoba
35'⚽Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
47'🟨Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
51'🟨David Fernandez · Oviedo
52'⚽Javier Lara · Cordoba
58'🟨Carlos De Pena · Oviedo
69'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
78'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
82'🟨Rodri · Cordoba
84'🟨Diegui · Oviedo
90'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Cordoba
90'⚽ (pen)Miguel Linares · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.35
box share (last 5)0.670.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days208.00361.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.20
elo1375.15
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
1469.97
elo momentum (last 5)10.64-24.91
eye test v1-0.32-0.09
eye trend v10.100.08
first sub minute (last 10)47.3051.70
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.92
keeper form v10.760.75
league points46.0055.00
league rank17.008.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8071.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.40
rest days7.987.98
scorer concentration0.280.36
season ppg1.181.41
skill v1-0.38-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
state index-0.27-0.83
sterile dominance v10.07-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20