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Valladolid 1–0 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win37%2.61
Getafe CF win32%3.02
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Sergio Mora · Getafe CF
33'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Getafe CF
71'⚽Álex Pérez · Valladolid
76'🟨Cristian Espinoza · Valladolid
79'🟨Sergio Marcos · Valladolid
90'🟨Dejan Dražić · Valladolid
90'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.40
box share (last 5)0.640.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days330.00268.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.02
elo1477.24
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
1519.32
elo momentum (last 5)30.2510.70
eye test v10.530.25
eye trend v10.090.02
first sub minute (last 10)59.9064.10
form points (last 5)11.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.97
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.530.50
league points57.0064.00
league rank7.003.00
matches since blank10.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0075.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0053.40
rest days6.257.88
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.461.64
skill v1-0.590.15
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
state index0.310.21
sterile dominance v1-0.780.18
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.330.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40