⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mirandes 2–2 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win44%2.21
Mirandes win28%3.49
Draw28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Valladolid
21'🟨André Leão · Valladolid
35'🟨Carlos Moreno · Mirandes
35'🟨Roberto Gutierrez · Mirandes
35'🟨Roberto Gutierrez · Mirandes
35'🟥Roberto Gutierrez · Mirandes
37'⚽ (pen)Raúl de Tomás · Valladolid
53'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
57'🟨Iker Guarrotxena · Mirandes
57'⚽ (pen)Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
64'🟨Fran Cruz · Mirandes
68'🟨Marco Sangalli · Mirandes
68'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid
86'🟨Ruper · Mirandes
90'⚽ (og)Luciano Balbi · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.43
box share (last 5)0.510.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days50.00324.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.123.39
elo1367.10
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
1478.71
elo momentum (last 5)-17.7016.15
eye test v1-0.770.43
eye trend v1-0.16-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)53.1058.50
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.84
keeper form v10.690.56
league points36.0056.00
league rank22.007.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6073.20
possession avg (last 5)48.6049.20
rest days7.827.96
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg0.951.47
skill v1-0.75-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.40
state index-0.840.07
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40