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Almeria 2–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win45%2.18
Draw30%3.21
Numancia win25%3.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Fidel · Almeria
30'🟨Marco Motta · Almeria
33'⚽Antonio Puertas · Almeria
34'🟨Antonio Puertas · Almeria
35'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
58'🟨Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
60'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
68'🟨Borja · Almeria
74'🟨Dani Nieto · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.25
box share (last 5)0.770.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days73.00712.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.63
elo1413.44
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
1441.28
elo momentum (last 5)-9.3419.00
eye test v1-0.63-0.54
eye trend v10.240.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.7064.40
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.95
keeper form v10.680.70
league points42.0048.00
league rank18.0012.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6063.80
possession avg (last 5)54.0048.40
rest days6.027.02
scorer concentration0.330.26
season ppg1.141.30
skill v10.45-1.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
state index-0.48-0.10
sterile dominance v10.89-1.04
threat rate (last 10)0.150.26
threat rate (last 3)0.140.29
threat rate (last 5)0.160.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20