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Elche CF 0–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win59%1.65
Draw24%4.01
Mirandes win17%5.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟥Urko Vera · Mirandes
41'🟨Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
45'🟨Borja Valle · Elche CF
54'🟨Fran Cruz · Mirandes
63'🟨Álex Fernández · Elche CF
72'🟨Fabián Ruiz · Elche CF
73'🟨Ruper · Mirandes
81'🟨Kijera · Mirandes
82'🟨Roberto Gutierrez · Mirandes
90'🟨Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
90'🟥Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
90'⚽Carlos Moreno · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days682.0042.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.943.12
elo1401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1354.09
elo momentum (last 5)-37.89-15.98
eye test v1-0.46-0.35
eye trend v1-0.450.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.0053.10
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.57
keeper form v10.620.67
league points42.0033.00
league rank17.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.004.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8069.80
possession avg (last 5)49.6051.40
rest days7.016.01
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.140.89
skill v1-0.35-0.53
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
state index-1.02-1.08
sterile dominance v10.08-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40