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Zaragoza 1–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win42%2.35
Draw31%3.20
Cadiz win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
59'🟨Luis Ruiz · Cadiz
72'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
88'🟨Jordi Xumetra · Zaragoza
90'⚽Aitor García · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.43
box share (last 5)0.540.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days223.00406.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.44
elo1430.69
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1513.55
elo momentum (last 5)1.237.43
eye test v10.14-0.40
eye trend v1-0.040.23
first sub minute (last 10)59.4058.10
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.67
keeper form v10.670.76
league points46.0058.00
league rank14.004.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2060.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6045.20
rest days5.025.13
scorer concentration0.410.34
season ppg1.241.57
skill v10.10-1.97
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
state index-0.360.09
sterile dominance v10.10-0.94
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60