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Tenerife 2–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win55%1.78
Draw27%3.55
Lugo win18%5.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Lugo
14'🟨Germán Sánchez · Tenerife
27'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
33'⚽Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
48'⚽ (og)Jorge Sáenz · Lugo
49'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
59'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
71'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
81'⚽Anthony Lozano · Tenerife
87'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
90'🟨Camille · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
box share (last 5)0.640.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days553.00310.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.122.55
elo1510.46
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1454.60
elo momentum (last 5)-4.58-1.43
eye test v1-1.06-0.76
eye trend v1-0.21-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.0053.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.67
keeper form v10.710.74
league points55.0048.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4060.40
rest days7.886.88
scorer concentration0.350.38
season ppg1.531.33
skill v1-0.660.89
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
state index-0.16-0.47
sterile dominance v10.451.39
threat rate (last 10)0.190.16
threat rate (last 3)0.160.10
threat rate (last 5)0.140.14
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60