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Girona 3–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win51%1.92
Draw28%3.45
Huesca win21%4.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Portu · Girona
40'🟨Sergio Herrera · Huesca
41'⚽ (pen)Fran Sandaza · Girona
44'⚽Samu Sáiz · Huesca
54'🟨Juan Aguilera · Huesca
62'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
69'🟨Alex Granell · Girona
71'🟨Fran Sandaza · Girona
73'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
90'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
90'⚽Fran Sandaza · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
box share (last 5)0.690.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1235.00522.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.10
elo1551.77
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1527.35
elo momentum (last 5)-15.0517.72
eye test v10.15-0.66
eye trend v1-0.350.28
first sub minute (last 10)59.0057.40
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.92
keeper form v10.730.75
league points65.0055.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6054.00
rest days6.195.15
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg1.811.53
skill v1-0.98-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
state index-0.000.32
sterile dominance v1-0.990.29
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80