⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mallorca 1–0 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win50%1.95
Draw29%3.31
Elche CF win21%4.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Julio Pleguezuelo · Mallorca
29'🟨Alex Vallejo · Mallorca
39'🟨Andres Tunez · Elche CF
90'⚽Lago Júnior · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.41
box share (last 5)0.560.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days35.00675.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.773.01
elo1407.271410.17
elo momentum (last 5)-6.55-40.72
eye test v1
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
-0.67
-0.08
eye trend v1-0.12-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.80
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.14
keeper form v10.680.60
league points36.0042.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)54.6051.60
rest days5.837.83
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.001.17
skill v10.33-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
state index-0.53-0.95
sterile dominance v10.590.32
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.15
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20