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Lugo 1–2 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win37%2.62
Lugo win33%3.00
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽ (og)Carlos Hernández · Girona
3'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
18'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Lugo
18'⚽ (pen)Samuele Longo · Girona
59'🟨Joselu · Lugo
59'🟨Rubén Alcaraz · Girona
61'🟨Fran Sandaza · Girona
63'🟨Pablo Caballero · Lugo
70'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
89'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
89'🟥Pedro Alcala · Girona
90'🟨Vasyl Kravets · Lugo
90'⚽ (pen)Joselu · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.45
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days303.001229.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.15
elo1464.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
1542.30
elo momentum (last 5)-4.77-41.19
eye test v1-0.500.60
eye trend v1-0.11-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)53.5058.70
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.40
keeper form v10.760.76
league points48.0062.00
league rank9.002.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6071.40
possession avg (last 5)60.2050.00
rest days7.927.81
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg1.371.77
skill v10.88-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.80
state index-0.21-0.33
sterile dominance v11.40-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.180.28
threat rate (last 3)0.120.19
threat rate (last 5)0.140.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00