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Valladolid 1–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win45%2.18
Draw30%3.25
Numancia win25%3.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

60'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
65'⚽Marc Mateu · Numancia
74'🟨Luciano Balbi · Valladolid
76'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Valladolid
87'🟨Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
89'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
box share (last 5)0.610.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days302.00698.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.04
elo1454.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
1430.03
elo momentum (last 5)-14.599.50
eye test v10.64-0.39
eye trend v10.360.34
first sub minute (last 10)55.1064.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.97
keeper form v10.550.58
league points49.0044.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet10.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4067.00
possession avg (last 5)51.4046.80
rest days7.086.25
scorer concentration0.280.27
season ppg1.401.26
skill v10.25-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.80
state index-0.42-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00