⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Levante UD 1–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win55%1.78
Draw28%3.54
Oviedo win18%5.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

55'⚽Sergio Postigo · Levante UD
61'🟨José Fernández · Oviedo
63'🟨José Luis Morales · Levante UD
66'🟨Víctor Casadesús · Levante UD
78'🟨Michu · Oviedo
82'🟨Néstor Susaeta · Oviedo
85'🟨Toño · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days302.00332.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.32
elo1557.88
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
1493.75
elo momentum (last 5)-20.498.90
eye test v1-0.51-0.07
eye trend v1-0.430.50
first sub minute (last 10)44.8050.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.88
keeper form v10.800.77
league points74.0053.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4065.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8045.80
rest days7.007.92
scorer concentration0.340.35
season ppg2.111.51
skill v10.11-1.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.40
state index-0.01-0.20
sterile dominance v10.67-0.90
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40