⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Numancia 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win36%2.71
Tenerife win32%3.03
Draw32%3.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Dani Calvo · Numancia
37'🟨Dani Nieto · Numancia
53'🟨Pablo Valcarce · Numancia
68'⚽Anthony Lozano · Tenerife
80'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
90'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
90'⚽Dani Calvo · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.490.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days692.00539.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.284.15
elo1471.251541.93
elo momentum (last 5)7.737.40
eye test v1-0.75-0.32
eye trend v10.38-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)66.1053.90
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.630.74
league points44.0056.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6051.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.280.36
season ppg1.221.56
skill v1-0.94-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
squad age25.3628.22
state index-0.190.14
sterile dominance v1-0.580.50
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.15
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80