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Valladolid 2–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win52%1.89
Draw28%3.47
Elche CF win20%4.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Valladolid
10'⚽Borja Valle · Elche CF
19'🟨André Leão · Valladolid
31'🟨Iriondo · Elche CF
52'🟨Antonio Caballero · Elche CF
67'🟨Josete · Elche CF
87'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Valladolid
90'🟨Míchel Herrero · Valladolid
90'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.37
box share (last 5)0.610.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days295.00661.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.963.10
elo1446.99
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
1429.71
elo momentum (last 5)-11.19-29.18
eye test v10.550.41
eye trend v10.280.11
first sub minute (last 10)54.8056.20
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.14
keeper form v10.610.67
league points46.0042.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.005.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8074.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2051.20
rest days6.177.00
scorer concentration0.260.31
season ppg1.351.24
skill v10.10-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.00
state index-0.52-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.17-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20