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Elche CF 1–3 Numancia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win47%2.07
Draw30%3.25
Numancia win23%4.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
41'⚽Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Numancia
50'⚽Nacho Sánchez · Numancia
63'🟨Edu Albacar · Elche CF
70'🟨Aitor Fernández · Numancia
73'⚽Borja Valle · Elche CF
79'🟨Marc Pedraza · Numancia
88'🟨Eneko Capilla · Numancia
90'🟨Edu Albacar · Elche CF
90'🟥Edu Albacar · Elche CF
90'⚽ (pen)Unai Medina · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.24
box share (last 5)0.530.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days654.00684.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.192.28
elo1448.87
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1409.93
elo momentum (last 5)-12.37-10.17
eye test v10.30-0.73
eye trend v1-0.050.07
first sub minute (last 10)55.4066.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.97
keeper form v10.670.58
league points42.0040.00
league rank11.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0070.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8048.20
rest days6.005.92
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.271.21
skill v10.06-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
state index-0.38-0.90
sterile dominance v1-0.47-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00