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Almeria 2–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win40%2.46
Draw30%3.21
Zaragoza win30%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Edu Bedia · Zaragoza
7'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
16'⚽Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
25'🟨Antonio Puertas · Almeria
30'🟨Fidel · Almeria
45'⚽Quique · Almeria
59'🟨Edu Bedia · Zaragoza
70'🟨Fidel · Almeria
70'🟥Fidel · Almeria
75'🟨Borja · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.44
box share (last 5)0.760.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days39.00190.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.552.45
elo1422.78
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
1429.46
elo momentum (last 5)36.3217.08
eye test v1-0.89-0.17
eye trend v10.010.15
first sub minute (last 10)52.5059.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.08
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.790.70
league points35.0039.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)48.0050.20
rest days7.357.00
scorer concentration0.340.36
season ppg1.091.22
skill v1-0.640.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
state index0.15-0.02
sterile dominance v10.300.42
threat rate (last 10)0.170.23
threat rate (last 3)0.140.20
threat rate (last 5)0.150.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40