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Numancia 0–2 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win38%2.52
Draw31%3.12
Numancia win30%3.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Juanpe · Girona
53'🟨Jose Manuel Casado · Numancia
54'⚽Pedro Alcala · Girona
59'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
70'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
90'🟨Marc Mateu · Numancia
90'⚽Pedro Alcala · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.44
box share (last 5)0.470.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days678.001208.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.18
elo1422.28
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
1544.18
elo momentum (last 5)-13.48-34.09
eye test v1-0.631.30
eye trend v1-0.420.44
first sub minute (last 10)66.3060.90
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.51
keeper form v10.590.65
league points40.0058.00
league rank13.002.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2051.40
rest days5.927.90
scorer concentration0.300.24
season ppg1.251.81
skill v1-0.540.06
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.207.00
state index-0.74-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.39
threat rate (last 5)0.240.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40