⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Getafe CF 2–0 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win44%2.20
Draw31%3.15
Levante UD win25%3.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF
37'⚽Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
40'🟨Chema · Levante UD
54'🟨Sergio Postigo · Levante UD
77'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF
90'🟨Chuli · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.48
box share (last 5)0.620.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days219.00281.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.89
elo1475.43
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1579.00
elo momentum (last 5)-10.2528.51
eye test v1-0.370.51
eye trend v10.230.31
first sub minute (last 10)56.8044.50
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.16
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.640.79
league points48.0072.00
league rank6.001.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.0078.20
possession avg (last 5)48.0051.60
rest days7.007.08
scorer concentration0.300.34
season ppg1.502.25
skill v1-1.150.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.40
state index-0.260.66
sterile dominance v1-0.490.30
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60