⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Tenerife 1–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win53%1.85
Draw30%3.26
Oviedo win17%5.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽ (pen)Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
26'🟨David Costas · Oviedo
61'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
66'🟨Anthony Lozano · Tenerife
66'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
73'🟨Toché · Oviedo
77'🟨Lucas Torró · Oviedo
82'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
84'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
88'🟨Jon Erice · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.21
box share (last 5)—0.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days518.00305.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.702.26
elo1515.05
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1501.52
elo momentum (last 5)11.479.71
eye test v10.25-1.08
eye trend v1-0.020.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.6054.50
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.92
keeper form v10.860.80
league points49.0049.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8070.80
possession avg (last 5)54.0049.80
rest days7.047.84
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.581.58
skill v10.06-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.20
state index0.270.03
sterile dominance v10.06-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00