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Girona 1–3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win52%1.86
Draw29%3.39
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win19%5.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
20'⚽Roberto Trashorras · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
25'🟨Antonio Amaya · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
41'⚽Pedro Alcala · Girona
48'🟨Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
58'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
59'🟨Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
60'⚽Javi Guerra · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
68'🟨Patrick Ebert · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1200.0059.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.42
elo1617.001483.12
elo momentum (last 5)-7.55-0.67
eye test v10.98-0.94
eye trend v10.31-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)62.4053.20
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.720.73
league points62.0034.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0057.20
rest days6.966.96
scorer concentration0.240.17
season ppg1.881.06
skill v10.030.45
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.20
squad age25.3328.78
state index0.47-0.35
sterile dominance v1-0.501.16
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.15
threat rate (last 5)0.310.13
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20