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Levante UD 2–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win64%1.52
Draw23%4.31
Mirandes win13%7.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Chema · Levante UD
41'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Levante UD
51'🟨Fernando Usero · Mirandes
65'⚽Marco Sangalli · Mirandes
89'🟨Carlos Moreno · Mirandes
90'🟨Kijera · Mirandes
90'🟨Ruper · Mirandes
90'🟥Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
90'⚽ (pen)Roger Martí · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.26
box share (last 5)0.440.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days274.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.963.54
elo1575.37
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
1373.70
elo momentum (last 5)23.96-25.35
eye test v10.21-0.83
eye trend v10.460.24
first sub minute (last 10)47.6052.80
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.57
keeper form v10.840.61
league points69.0029.00
league rank1.0022.00
matches since blank8.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.0014.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6066.20
possession avg (last 5)48.6046.60
rest days6.775.88
scorer concentration0.350.31
season ppg2.230.94
skill v10.07-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.20
state index0.77-1.10
sterile dominance v10.21-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.200.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00