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Mirandes 1–3 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win37%2.63
Huesca win33%2.96
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Vinícius Araújo · Huesca
28'⚽Carlos David · Huesca
45'⚽Urko Vera · Mirandes
56'🟨Marco Sangalli · Mirandes
56'⚽Vinícius Araújo · Huesca
59'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
66'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
66'🟥Íñigo Eguaras · Mirandes
82'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.38
box share (last 5)0.470.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—481.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.542.41
elo1386.55
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
1496.79
elo momentum (last 5)0.6823.25
eye test v1-0.580.02
eye trend v10.370.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.9057.50
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.94
keeper form v10.550.71
league points29.0043.00
league rank22.007.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2046.20
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.320.19
season ppg0.971.43
skill v1-1.02-1.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
state index-0.770.25
sterile dominance v1-0.41-0.90
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40