⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Getafe CF 2–0 Lugo

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win49%2.00
Draw30%3.23
Lugo win21%4.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Antonio Campillo · Lugo
26'⚽Chuli · Getafe CF
39'🟨Joselu · Lugo
60'🟨Alejandro Faurlin · Getafe CF
64'🟨Sergio Mora · Getafe CF
64'🟨Roberto Fernández · Lugo
64'🟥Pablo Caballero · Lugo
73'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
box share (last 5)0.620.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days206.00268.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.992.13
elo1459.89
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1468.84
elo momentum (last 5)-27.28-17.66
eye test v1-0.27-0.02
eye trend v10.25-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)57.0056.60
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.42
keeper form v10.600.80
league points44.0041.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)50.6060.00
rest days7.757.75
scorer concentration0.280.37
season ppg1.471.37
skill v1-0.751.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-0.61-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.240.81
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80