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Oviedo 2–0 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win39%2.52
Draw31%3.12
Oviedo win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Borja García · Girona
31'🟨Pablo Maffeo · Girona
44'🟨Samuele Longo · Girona
46'⚽Toché · Oviedo
54'⚽Toché · Oviedo
67'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
77'🟨Borja Dominguez · Oviedo
88'🟨Juanpe · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.510.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days297.001193.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.222.36
elo1484.851583.49
elo momentum (last 5)1.4520.79
eye test v1-1.210.44
eye trend v1-0.240.40
first sub minute (last 10)55.0062.10
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.42
keeper form v10.750.79
league points46.0058.00
league rank5.002.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6072.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8052.20
rest days6.016.11
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg1.531.93
skill v1-0.32-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.20
state index0.120.68
sterile dominance v10.31-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.200.32
threat rate (last 3)0.160.30
threat rate (last 5)0.180.29
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.00