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Girona 1–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win54%1.80
Draw28%3.54
Cadiz win18%5.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
17'⚽Alfredo Ortuño · Cadiz
21'⚽Álvaro García · Cadiz
36'🟨Samuele Longo · Girona
66'⚽Samuele Longo · Girona
68'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
75'🟨Aridane Hernández · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.44
box share (last 5)0.720.74
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1187.00352.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.51
elo1597.64
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1504.01
elo momentum (last 5)32.005.31
eye test v1-0.010.08
eye trend v10.250.22
first sub minute (last 10)64.0057.10
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.16
keeper form v10.850.72
league points58.0047.00
league rank2.003.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8062.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0045.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.33
season ppg2.001.62
skill v1-0.87-1.68
sot against avg (last 5)2.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
state index1.050.10
sterile dominance v1-0.78-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40