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Huesca 2–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Manuel Arias Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win44%2.22
Draw30%3.25
Mallorca win26%3.74

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
45'🟨Hector Yuste · Mallorca
49'🟨Angeliño · Mallorca
52'🟨Lago Júnior · Mallorca
57'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
61'🟨Dejan Lekic · Mallorca
73'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
76'🟨Íñigo López · Huesca
88'⚽Thierry Moutinho · Mallorca
89'🟨Kilian Grant · Huesca
89'🟨Kilian Grant · Huesca
89'🟥Kilian Grant · Huesca
90'⚽Alexander González · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.600.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days473.00442.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.79
elo1490.45
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
1417.16
elo momentum (last 5)30.06-11.42
eye test v10.05-0.15
eye trend v10.250.48
first sub minute (last 10)63.6056.10
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.67
keeper form v10.760.61
league points40.0030.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0066.40
possession avg (last 5)44.8046.80
rest days6.257.08
scorer concentration0.210.33
season ppg1.381.03
skill v1-1.07-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
state index0.19-0.82
sterile dominance v1-0.96-1.17
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60