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Lugo 2–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win54%1.82
Draw27%3.58
Mirandes win19%5.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
48'⚽Jordi Calavera · Lugo
61'⚽Joselu · Lugo
70'🟨Sergio Gil · Lugo
88'⚽Urko Vera · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
box share (last 5)0.640.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days260.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.313.40
elo1462.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
1392.99
elo momentum (last 5)-22.85-7.53
eye test v10.01-0.66
eye trend v1-0.040.12
first sub minute (last 10)58.2054.70
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.470.67
keeper form v1—0.59
league points38.0029.00
league rank10.0020.00
matches since blank9.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.0012.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8065.80
possession avg (last 5)60.2052.20
rest days7.087.00
scorer concentration0.360.33
season ppg1.311.00
skill v11.10-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
state index-0.67-0.75
sterile dominance v10.93-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00