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Almeria 0–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win39%2.50
Draw31%3.15
Huesca win30%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Ramon Azeez · Almeria
52'🟨Nano · Almeria
62'🟨Juan Aguilera · Huesca
83'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days11.00467.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.571.90
elo1435.301496.42
elo momentum (last 5)-7.9641.08
eye test v1-0.510.12
eye trend v10.430.46
first sub minute (last 10)52.9064.40
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.680.75
league points28.0042.00
league rank23.007.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.6063.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2046.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.21
season ppg0.971.40
skill v1-0.84-1.53
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
squad age28.6427.67
state index-0.330.44
sterile dominance v10.01-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.180.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40