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Girona 5–1 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win50%1.93
Draw30%3.26
Getafe CF win20%4.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Kiko Olivas · Girona
26'🟨Alberto Garcia · Getafe CF
26'⚽Borja García · Girona
32'🟨Emiliano Buendía · Getafe CF
32'🟨Facundo Castillon · Getafe CF
33'🟨Sergio Mora · Getafe CF
34'⚽ (pen)Alex Granell · Girona
45'🟨Pablo Maffeo · Girona
45'🟨Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
59'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
60'⚽Samuele Longo · Girona
65'🟨Chuli · Getafe CF
79'⚽Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
85'⚽Samuele Longo · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.23
box share (last 5)0.660.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1172.00184.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.122.77
elo1578.27
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1485.67
elo momentum (last 5)7.25-5.62
eye test v1-0.78-0.87
eye trend v1-0.360.18
first sub minute (last 10)62.9062.60
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.97
keeper form v10.820.69
league points52.0043.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4063.80
possession avg (last 5)48.6046.40
rest days7.006.92
scorer concentration0.210.30
season ppg1.931.59
skill v1-1.08-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.80
state index0.64-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.79-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00