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Tenerife 1–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win61%1.59
Draw25%3.91
Mirandes win14%7.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
18'⚽Amath Ndiaye · Tenerife
21'🟨Camille · Tenerife
34'🟨Fran Cruz · Mirandes
42'⚽Nestor Salinas Alonso · Mirandes
76'🟨Ismael Falcon · Tenerife
76'🟨Kijera · Mirandes
77'🟨Suso · Tenerife
79'🟨Iker Guarrotxena · Mirandes
85'🟨Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
86'🟨Cristo González · Tenerife
90'🟨Sergio Pérez · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.25
box share (last 5)0.620.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days488.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.542.85
elo1520.52
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1388.60
elo momentum (last 5)37.19-17.49
eye test v1-0.59-0.61
eye trend v10.130.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.0055.40
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.82
keeper form v10.930.60
league points44.0027.00
league rank4.0021.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0010.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4065.60
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.00
rest days6.136.13
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg1.631.00
skill v1-0.23-1.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
state index0.74-0.82
sterile dominance v10.15-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80