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Mirandes 0–2 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Manuel Lopez Amaya, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win43%2.27
Draw30%3.24
Mirandes win27%3.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Daniel Provencio · Mirandes
41'🟨Pablo Maffeo · Girona
43'🟨Juanpe · Girona
74'🟨Alex Granell · Girona
84'🟨Fran Sandaza · Girona
84'⚽Fran Sandaza · Girona
87'⚽ (pen)Samuele Longo · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.23
box share (last 5)0.490.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—1165.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.07
elo1399.05
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
1567.82
elo momentum (last 5)-2.896.38
eye test v1-0.29-0.53
eye trend v10.21-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)56.4060.50
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.17
keeper form v10.660.80
league points27.0049.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8062.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.00
rest days6.006.92
scorer concentration0.320.22
season ppg1.041.88
skill v1-0.98-1.59
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.60
state index-0.470.29
sterile dominance v1-0.76-1.21
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40