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Valladolid 0–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win49%1.99
Draw31%3.12
Tenerife win20%4.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Joan Jordán · Valladolid
51'🟨Juan Villar · Valladolid
56'🟨Vitolo · Tenerife
61'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
78'🟨Juan Villar · Valladolid
78'🟥Juan Villar · Valladolid
78'🟨Germán Sánchez · Tenerife
90'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.34
box share (last 5)0.540.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days226.00469.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.463.09
elo1470.91
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
1496.78
elo momentum (last 5)15.0127.76
eye test v10.45-0.43
eye trend v1-0.170.10
first sub minute (last 10)64.3057.10
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.97
keeper form v10.710.88
league points34.0037.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)56.0048.20
rest days6.837.92
scorer concentration0.280.30
season ppg1.421.54
skill v10.59-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
state index0.190.31
sterile dominance v10.23-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20