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Cordoba 0–2 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win43%2.29
Draw31%3.15
Huesca win26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Lluis Sastre · Huesca
25'🟨Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
48'🟨Juan Aguilera · Huesca
58'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
65'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
67'🟨Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
67'🟥Sergio Aguza · Cordoba
68'🟥Luso · Cordoba
76'⚽Álvaro Vadillo · Huesca
87'⚽Álvaro Vadillo · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days103.00439.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.733.06
elo1357.26
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
1460.39
elo momentum (last 5)-19.17-44.69
eye test v1-0.28-0.95
eye trend v1-0.24-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)59.2059.50
form points (last 5)2.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.55
keeper form v10.720.70
league points27.0029.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win5.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0065.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4055.60
rest days7.757.67
scorer concentration0.290.21
season ppg1.131.21
skill v1-0.06-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.80
state index-1.16-0.94
sterile dominance v10.180.33
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00